Tenge may benefit from stronger oil, calmer politics in April: Reuters Poll

FILE PHOTO:  New 500 tenge banknotes are displayed in this picture illustration in Almaty
FILE PHOTO: New 500 tenge banknotes are displayed in this picture illustration in Almaty, Kazakhstan November 22, 2017. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov/Illustration/File Photo

April 2, 2019

ALMATY (Reuters) – The Kazakh tenge may rise against the dollar this month, supported by strong oil prices and a calmer political backdrop after president Nursultan Nazarbayev’s surprise resignation sparked a brief sell-off in March, according to a Reuters poll.

Five out of eight participants in the poll, which was carried out on March 29 – April 1, predicted that the currency would strengthen this month.

Two analysts see the tenge unchanged at about 380 per dollar, and one said it would weaken.

The 12-month outlook was bearish, with five analysts forecasting a weaker tenge, one expecting it to remain stable and two forecasting gains.

The tenge closed March virtually flat after giving up early gains following Nazarbayev’s resignation on March 19.

Nazarbayev and interim president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev have since said there would be no major changes in economic policy.

“In spite of a major political shift, the tenge volatility could not push the market beyond strong resistance of 384 per dollar,” said Aibek Burabayev of ICBC Almaty.

“Psychological pressure has been evaporating as the National Bank shows its confidence and readiness to act if needed. Therefore USDKZT could drop to the lower side of the range in the area of 370 tenge per dollar to follow the strong (Russian) rouble.”

(Reporting by Mariya Gordeyeva; Writing by Olzhas Auyezov; Editing by Toby Chopra and Jan Harvey)

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